False positives/negatives and Bayes rule for COVID-19 testing

Why both false positives and false negatives are bad for the COVID-19 tests. Why Bayes rule is important for these situations. What is a false positive/negative anyway? A disease-screening medical test, like the one used to detect whether you are infected with the dreaded COVID-19 virus, essentially gives you a YES/NO answer. But, here are some questions toContinue reading “False positives/negatives and Bayes rule for COVID-19 testing”

The economic effects of COVID-19 around the world

Latest developments: China’s factory output posts sharpest plunge in three decades in Jan-Feb. Unprecedented Federal Reserve move fails to calm markets. US share trading halted; market falls 9% on Monday. Spain, France follow Italy in imposing severe restrictions on movement. Previous headlines: UNCTAD warns of a $1 trillion cost to the world economy. Cryptocurrencies plunge. Italy’s entire populationContinue reading “The economic effects of COVID-19 around the world”

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